The sight of holiday-bound Labour MPs
who will have to ponder
the future of their troubled leader
won't be a pleasant one for Gordon Brown. There's nothing quite like the prospect of losing your seat to prompt
a MP to assess what to do.
Now the time is right for the drinks industry to assess the risks it faces and many of
these are driven by the politicians now mulling their own futures.
It's not as if businesses don't have enough to cope with , such as the credit crunch
putting the squeeze on consumer spending. But the truth is that the
industry faces another challenge from the architects of public policy, which seriously threatens to overshadow the impact of a downturn in consumer spending.
The recently announced Department of Health alcohol consultation, taken together with the Scottish
Executive's wide-ranging proposals to tackle alcohol misuse, have crystallised the threats on the horizon. This gives
us the opportunity to really analyse the risks
and gauge the likelihood of imposed policy solutions.
Some of the highest risks will come as no surprise.
The tax escalator - excise duty to rise by inflation, plus 2%, for the next four years - was outlined in the Budget. We continue to fight to persuade the Chancellor to rethink, but all the signs seem to show that the Treasury will want to cling on to these measures .
Proposals for minimum pricing also pose a
threat. The Scottish
Executive has made the first move, mooting the notion of a 35p minimum price per alcohol unit, with ministers able to raise the price
thereafter. Little mention so far of the extra revenue this might produce for
the Executive from the VAT arising from higher prices, but you can be sure
that Westminster is watching
Plans to ban both promotions and all promotional materials are already high on the agenda north of the border, and it's
believed there is a
risk that the rest of the UK will
follow suit. How will any new brands enter the market if they are unable to promote themselves to consumers - even on the quality of the product?
In Scotland, restrictions on retail siting of alcohol have already become law and come into force, and more
restraints such as
separate checkouts are planned. Scottish ministers have made it clear that moves to restrict where shops place their product are a central plank of their alcohol strategy proposals.
No similar proposals on siting have
come from Westminster, but they
were raised for the first time in the
Spotlight on labelling
more action on unit labelling is likely. While we dispute the DoH's assessment of the industry's performance in meeting the terms of
voluntary agreements, there is
no doubt that government officials are
considering legislating for mandatory enforcement.
This goes hand in hand with the prospect of some sort of mandatory industry codes of practice, following the recent KPMG report. The whole tenor of this report and the terms of the DoH's consultation document point to the growing likelihood that some form of mandatory code, perhaps policed by local authorities as part of the licensing regime, will be imposed on the alcohol industry.
There are other risks facing us
but judged less of a threat , either because they are less likely or would have less direct impact on our operations - restricting advertising, raising the age for buying alcohol, reversing the 24-hour licensing laws and reducing the drink-drive limit.
All this has to be set in the context of what remains a
threat of continued government criticism and scrutiny of the drinks industry. Recent weeks may have seen a switch of media attention to the threat posed by knife crime in our inner cities, but the public concern about binge-drinking and associated anti social behaviour will never be far from the front pages.
These risks must be set against a political backdrop in which ministers fear public reaction to tax increases and anything which makes the impact of the credit squeeze on household budgets worse. Yet with David Cameron preparing his troops for power there is always the possibility that the Tories will be tempted into populist measures on regulation of alcohol, which they will be obliged to deliver in government.
Separately, these policy developments would all have major impacts on businesses; but combined they amount to a radically different marketplace.
More depressingly, these measures are a missed opportunity for the governments north and south of the border to really tackle alcohol-related harm. Whatever the government says, these actions will demonise alcohol and penalise the majority of consumers.
Working as one
The WSTA is focused on the risks and fighting to make the industry case in the corridors of power and the media. Those who are concerned that we are not doing enough should realise that to spell out every detail
of our strategy and the work
we do would undermine our approach. No campaigner tells the opposition what they are planning to do, but I can assure members there is a strategy and it is
vital that the
We are also working hard to encourage support among
our real allies - the millions of consumers who buy our members' products and enjoy a responsible drink. Let's all appreciate the risks and do our best to ensure we reduce the threats facing the industry. If you are not involved and would like to be, at either a national or local level, then let us know.